26 September 2012
The Donor-Risk-Index, ECD-Score and D-MELD-Score all fail to predict short-term outcome after liver transplantation with acceptable sensitivity and specificity
Harald SchremABCDEF, Benedikt ReichertABCDEF, Nils FrühaufBDF, Thomas BeckerCDF, Frank LehnerCDF, Moritz KleineBDE, Hüseyin BektasCDF, Lea ZachauBCF, Jürgen KlempnauerCDFDOI: 10.12659/AOT.883452
Ann Transplant 2012; 17(3): 5-13
Abstract
Background: Expansion of the donor pool by the use of grafts with extended donor criteria reduces waiting list mortality with an increased risk for graft and patient survival after liver transplantation. This study investigates the ability of the Donor-Risk-Index (DRI), the Extended-Criteria-Donor-Score (ECD-score) and the D-MELD-score to predict early outcome after liver transplantation.
Material/Methods: 291 consecutive adult liver transplants (01.01.2007–31.12.2010) were analysed in a single centre study with ongoing data collection. Primary study endpoints were 30-day mortality, 3-month mortality, 3-month patient and graft survival and the necessity of acute retransplantation within 30 days. For the primary study endpoints ROC-curve analysis was performed to calculate the sensitivity, specificity, and overall model correctness of the Donor-Risk-Index (DRI), Extended-Criteria-Donor-Score (ECD-score) and the D-MELD-Score as predictive models. Cut-off values were selected with the best Youden index.
Results: ROC-curve analysis showed areas under the curve (AUROCs) <0.7 for the DRI, the ECD-Score and the D-MELD-Score as models for the prediction of 30-day mortality, 3-month mortality, 3-month patient survival, 3-month graft survival as well as the necessity of acute retransplantation within 30 days after transplantation with unacceptable low levels of overall model correctness (<62%) and specificity (<56%).
Conclusions: The DRI, the ECD-Score and the D-MELD-Score all fail to predict short-term outcome after liver transplantation with acceptable overall model correctness in a current European transplant setting.
Keywords: Liver Transplantation, Prognostic models, receiver operating characteristics
In Press
08 Mar 2024 : Original article
Association of Coronary Calcium Score on Cardiac PET During Pre-Kidney Transplant Assessment with Persisten...Ann Transplant In Press; DOI: 10.12659/AOT.943532
14 Mar 2024 : Original article
Impact of Blood Products Transfusion on Patients in the Immediate Post-Lung Transplant Period: A Cohort StudyAnn Transplant In Press; DOI: 10.12659/AOT.943652
14 Mar 2024 : Case report
Treatment of Cavernous Transformation of Portal Vein Caused by Hepatic Cystic Echinococcosis Using Ex Vivo ...Ann Transplant In Press; DOI: 10.12659/AOT.942358
15 Mar 2024 : Review article
Approaches and Challenges in the Current Management of Cytomegalovirus in Transplant Recipients: Highlighti...Ann Transplant In Press; DOI: 10.12659/AOT.941185
Most Viewed Current Articles
05 Apr 2022 : Original article
Impact of Statins on Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence After Living-Donor Liver TransplantationDOI :10.12659/AOT.935604
Ann Transplant 2022; 27:e935604
12 Jan 2022 : Original article
Risk Factors for Developing BK Virus-Associated Nephropathy: A Single-Center Retrospective Cohort Study of ...DOI :10.12659/AOT.934738
Ann Transplant 2022; 27:e934738
22 Nov 2022 : Original article
Long-Term Effects of Everolimus-Facilitated Tacrolimus Reduction in Living-Donor Liver Transplant Recipient...DOI :10.12659/AOT.937988
Ann Transplant 2022; 27:e937988
15 Mar 2022 : Case report
Combined Liver, Pancreas-Duodenum, and Kidney Transplantation for Patients with Hepatitis B Cirrhosis, Urem...DOI :10.12659/AOT.935860
Ann Transplant 2022; 27:e935860